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The world could face a 2nd wave of COVID-19, experts say

Countries including Canada must prepare for a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak to emerge once social distancing measures are eased, and they should only lift those measures gradually, infectious disease experts say.

A second wave of an outbreak is an increase in infections that occurs after a sustained period of time when there are no — or very few — new cases of that illness, said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, a Toronto General Hospital Research Institute clinical investigator, who specializes in infectious diseases.

The good news is that Canada has the opportunity to learn from countries where the epidemic started months earlier by observing how public health measures in those places work to keep the case load from bubbling up again once people start to emerge from their homes and go about business as usual, he said.

Some Asian countries are facing a second wave of the virus now. For instance, on Friday, Hong Kong recorded its biggest daily jump in cases since the pandemic started, though mostly connected to infected travellers who are returning from abroad after they were prevented from going home before.

Like Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, Canada will also experience its own second wave after seeing initial success containing the virus through the social distancing measures currently in place, Bogoch believes.

«When we start to lift those measures in the months down the line, are we going to start to see a rebound of the virus? The answer is most certainly yes. We probably will see, to some extent, a greater number of cases as people mingle again as life slowly returns to normal.»

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, warned last week that «this virus is going to be with us for some time. It will not be eradicated from the world in months.» Read more here.

Disinfecting the world

(Ramzi Boudina/Reuters)

A worker wearing a protective suit disinfects a globe-shaped public garden amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in Algiers.

In brief

A small number of MPs will resume sitting in the House of Commons today to consider the federal government’s $82 billion pandemic aid package. According to Conservative sources, the party supports the coronavirus bill generally but is concerned about a lack of oversight on spending. Government House Leader Pablo Rodriguez says the Liberals are prepared to make changes to the proposed legislation. Read more about the return of Parliament.

Canada’s top public health doctor is warning against using hydroxychloroquine, a malaria medication, to treat COVID-19, after U.S. President Donald Trump touted the option. Last week, Trump told reporters the drug had shown «very, very encouraging early results.» But Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was quick to say officials are trying to strike a balance between making the potential therapy available to physicians on an emergency basis while ensuring it is truly safe and effective through clinical trials. Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, added her own cautions yesterday: «My message is that you should not take medication without the scientific evidence,» Tam said. «It can be quite dangerous. These drugs are not without side-effects.» Read more on this story here.

Public health officials in North America discourage healthy people from wearing masks, saying there’s no evidence they provide effective protection against the spread of the coronavirus. But officials in Asia encourage it. And health workers here say they need masks for protection. Confused? Read here for a closer look at what public health officials and the research say about who should wear a mask, how to wear one properly and what kind of protection it offers.

Leadership is at a premium these days, but a number of political parties in Canada have come to the conclusion that a pandemic is no time for leadership contests. In the last few days, three provincial leadership races have been postponed or delayed until further notice — including one in Newfoundland and Labrador that will select a premier. The federal Green Party yesterday announced it would change some of the rules for its leadership race, allowing members’ signatures to be gathered electronically and lowering the fundraising thresholds for entry. Meanwhile, the federal Conservatives have been under some pressure to push back the schedule of the party’s race to replace outgoing Leader Andrew Scheer. Read more on this from CBC’s Éric Grenier.

As the Canadian government and the U.S. central bank say they will do whatever it takes to get their economies back on track, some experts are recommending a long-discussed weapon. Known as helicopter money, the concept was proposed as a thought experiment by Nobel Prize-winning American economist Milton Friedman as an alternative to governments borrowing and spending to stimulate the economy. Read more about why helicopter money is being talked as the global economy struggles amid the coronavirus pandemic.

When the COVID-19 outbreak first appeared in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proclaimed it a hoax, a conspiracy from the country’s enemies. As CBC’s Terence McKenna writes, there were reports the regime tried to cover up the number of fatalities, until videos appeared that showed bodies being hurriedly buried in a graveyard by workers wearing masks and hazmat suits. As of yesterday, there were 1,812 Iranians dead from COVID-19. Observers warn that the government’s muddled, often paranoid messaging about the novel coronavirus could lead to many more deaths. Read more on this story here.

Now for some good news to start your Tuesday: With the pandemic shuttering theatres around the globe, Edmonton’s Cara McLeod turned her condo balcony into a stage to share the beauty of opera with her neighbours. McLeod, a soprano with the Edmonton Opera, performed from outside her home, singing to passersby who gathered while maintaining a safe distance from each other. She was inspired by the videos of Italians singing on their balconies and from their windows as that country began locking down. «Just seeing how, in such a stressful time, that people can come together and use music and raise their voices and have a light spirit even in the pain, was really beautiful,» she said. Read more here and watch her performance.

Front Burner: COVID-19’s other front-line workers: grocery store staff

Even as most businesses in Canada have shut their doors, grocery stores remain open. And workers in those stores — who are often in low-wage positions — are worried about their own safety as COVID-19 continues to spread. Today on Front Burner, CBC reporter Haydn Watters talks to guest host Michelle Shephard about how grocery store staff are coping with the crisis, and what their companies are aiming to do about it.

Today in history: March 24

1761: German soldiers and settlers establish Canada’s first Lutheran church in Halifax.

1837: Lower Canada, now Quebec, grants black residents the right to vote.

1890: Agnes Macphail, Canada’s first female MP, is born. She first won a Commons seat from Ontario in 1921.

1945: Canadian troops begin the liberation of the Netherlands during the Second World War.

2012: Thomas Mulcair, a combative former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister, is chosen to succeed the late Jack Layton as leader of the federal NDP. He made his House of Commons debut as leader of the Official Opposition two days later.

2017: Donald Trump grants the elusive U.S. presidential permit to TransCanada’s hotly debated, long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline, eight years and six months after the initial application for it to cross the American border.